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00:30
Aug 05
Aug 05
BOVA11.SA
EWZ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil heading for debt crisis
Brazil's public debt has risen rapidly under President Lula, and with real interest rates well above economic growth, a classic Latin American debt crisis can arrive quickly unless urgent fiscal reform is enacted. Political barriers, including Lula's electoral skill and division of the right, further darken the fiscal outlook.
BOVA11.SA SHORT
EWZ SHORT
HIGH
00:14
Aug 05
Aug 05
EWY
005930.KS
000660.KS
009150.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI rebound to 7,000–7,500 range
The KOSPI has formed a bottom around 5,400 after historic July volatility and is set for a short-term rebound toward 7,000–7,500. The speaker bought aggressively at the low and now targets that range for profit-taking, driven by normalization of leveraged positions, stabilization in U.S. markets, and easing geopolitical risks.
EWY LONG
Samsung, SK hynix deeply undervalued AI plays
HSBC states Samsung Electronics trades at around 8x EPS with its AI premium completely ignored, while SK hynix is similarly undervalued relative to TSMC despite AI memory dominance. DRAM prices are rising 10–15% QoQ, supporting the memory upcycle and making both stocks deeply attractive.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Tesla camera supply lifting Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG Innotek
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is benefiting from MLCC price increases, and LG Innotek surged on rumors of supplying Tesla’s cameras. Both companies are linked to Tesla’s camera supply chain and seeing positive momentum.
009150.KS LONG
HIGH
23:54
Aug 04
Aug 04
23:31
Aug 04
Aug 04
000660.KS
009150.KS
034020.KS
▾
HIGH
SK Hynix seen doubling on supply shortage.
Multiple US investment banks have initiated analyst coverage on SK Hynix with strong buy ratings and target prices as high as $320, implying over 100% upside from current levels. The reports highlight a supply shortage that could persist until 2028, driven by AI demand. The recent stock weakness was due to technical supply factors, not fundamentals, creating a buying opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG Innotek win Tesla robotaxi cameras.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek have secured an exclusive deal to supply all camera modules for Tesla's fully autonomous Cybercab robotaxi, which relies solely on vision with no other sensors. This validates their world-class camera module technology for high-stakes autonomous driving and positions them for substantial volume if Tesla meets its 2 million annual production target, with downstream robotics applications via Optimus.
009150.KS LONG
Doosan Enerbility gas turbines ordered for US data centers.
Doosan Enerbility's gas turbines are being adopted by US big tech companies for AI data center power generation. After an initial trial, the company has received strong follow-on orders, reflecting Elon Musk/Tesla's pattern of aggressively deploying Korean suppliers once proven, and signaling a major new revenue stream from the AI infrastructure buildout.
034020.KS LONG
HIGH
23:12
Aug 04
Aug 04
AMD FLIP
▾
MED
AMD guidance disappoints high expectations
AMD's third quarter revenue outlook of $13 billion +/- $300 million disappointed against bullish expectations. The stock had rallied 140% year-to-date but failed to clear a higher bar, and the AI infrastructure space is under pressure after the report, indicating a near-term negative direction.
AMD SHORT
MED
22:47
Aug 04
Aug 04
SX6P 1ST
DAX Index
CAC 40 Index
SMG 1ST
SPCX
▾
HIGH
European equities rally sustainable on AI.
European equity markets (Stoxx 600, DAX, CAC) are hitting record highs on a strong earnings season with 17% earnings growth, positive revisions breadth, and fresh capital inflows; the AI semiconductor value chain across Europe and East Asia provides a sustainable tailwind.
SX6P LONG
DAX Index LONG
CAC 40 Index LONG
Scotts Miracle-Gro growth algorithm underway.
ScottsMiracle-Gro is executing a new growth algorithm targeting 5-8% annual EPS growth, driven by low household penetration, digital marketing pivot, indoor gardening expansion, new grocery channel wins, and natural/organic products; management expects to outperform conservative guidance.
SMG LONG
SpaceX high-reward long-term investment opportunity.
SpaceX is a high-risk/high-reward long-term investment; Starlink is in early innings with massive consumer and military demand, the Nvidia partnership for orbital data centers could be transformative, and the stock trading below IPO price offers an attractive entry for patient investors.
SPCX LONG
Generac data center power business booming.
Generac's commercial and industrial data center backup generator business is booming with a $1.6 billion backlog, plans to triple capacity to ~$4 billion, and the potential to double the entire commercial segment next year, riding the massive AI data center build-out.
GNRC LONG
HIGH
22:46
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
2h
AIFD
TCW Power ETF
FLXR
CLLO
▾
HIGH
Active AI ETF for multi-sector outperformance
AI is a long-term structural theme spanning multiple sectors, and active management via TCW's AIFD ETF can outperform by selecting across industries, building on a track record from a converted mutual fund.
AIFD LONG
Active power infrastructure ETF for outperformance
Power and infrastructure demands driven by electrification and AI form a decades-long structural theme, and TCW's actively managed Power ETF offers broad cross-sector exposure without requiring daily subsector tinkering, aiming for long-term outperformance.
TCW Power ETF LONG
Active multi-sector bond ETF with 5.44% yield
With rates higher for longer and continued volatility, active fixed income management in the FLXR ETF allows dynamic duration management, capitalizes on attractive securitized market spreads, and delivers a strong total return with a 5.44% SEC yield for income-focused investors.
FLXR LONG
Short-duration CLO ETF for quality yield
CLLO ETF offers exposure to high-quality collateralized loan obligations with short duration, making it attractive for advisers seeking higher return potential while managing rate sensitivity in a higher-for-longer environment.
CLLO LONG
HIGH
22:45
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
2h
FLXR 1ST
CLLO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Active multi-sector fixed income with high yield
Active multi-sector fixed income ETF (FLXR) is attractive in a higher-for-longer rate environment where inflation concerns persist. The active management can rotate into undervalued sectors like securitized assets while credit spreads are tight, delivering both strong total return and an appealing 5.44% SEC yield for investors seeking steady income.
FLXR LONG
High quality, short duration CLO ETF
The CLO ETF (CLLO) offers high quality exposure with higher returns and very short duration, making it an attractive tool for advisors seeking to add income while managing interest-rate sensitivity in a rising-rate environment.
CLLO LONG
HIGH
22:41
Aug 04
Aug 04
EWY
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI bottom confirmed by retracement and exports
The recent KOSPI drop retraced about 52% of the prior rally, matching historical patterns of similar rallies where the retracement averaged 45-50%, suggesting the sell-off has exhausted. Additionally, the KOSPI has fallen to a level that corresponds to the current export amount, which historically acted as a firm floor (akin to a PBR of 1). Given that exports are stable and unlikely to decline further, this low is likely the real bottom, implying limited further downside and a buying opportunity.
EWY LONG
Watch SK Hynix for re-rating on earnings stability
SK Hynix is attempting to break out of the historical value trap by moving toward a TSMC-like stable-profit model. Through technology leadership in HBM, customization, and long-term contracts, the company aims to reduce earnings volatility. However, re-rating requires proof that it can defend margins during a down cycle. The stock is in a 'proof time' phase: if it demonstrates resilient earnings like TSMC, multiples could expand significantly. Investors should watch for evidence of this shift.
000660.KS WATCH
HIGH
22:41
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
2h
powered 1ST
AIFD 1ST
THNQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Multi-decade power infrastructure theme, active management.
Power infrastructure and grid modernization driven by AI energy needs represent a multi-decade structural demand theme. The TCW Power ETF (powered) offers actively managed, multisector exposure to this theme for long-term outperformance, allowing a core overweight without daily tinkering.
powered LONG
Long-term structural AI demand, active outperformance.
The AI revolution is a very long-term structural theme, and the TCW AI ETF (AIFD) provides active management to outperform by investing broadly across multiple sectors, so investors can allocate a portion of core equity to this theme without having to micromanage subsectors.
AIFD LONG
AI thematic ETFs replace sector overweights.
Thematic AI ETFs offer cross-sector exposure to artificial intelligence (impacting tech, utilities, industrials) and are increasingly being used by advisers as a 5% overweight alternative instead of narrow technology sector ETFs like the Technology Select Sector SPDR.
THNQ LONG
HIGH
22:37
Aug 04
Aug 04
AMZN 1ST
MSFT 1ST
META 1ST
GOOGL 1ST
SPY
▾
HIGH
AI data center capex is a bubble.
The massive AI data center capex by Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, projected at $725B in 2026, represents an irrational bubble fueled by artificially low interest rates; it will lead to entrepreneurial errors and unprofitable data centers.
AMZN AVOID
MSFT AVOID
META AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
US stock market is a bubble.
The U.S. stock market is in the end stage of a long and vast bubble, with near-zero real interest rates fueling a blowoff top; expected returns over the next 10 years are zero or negative, with a risk of a crash.
SPY AVOID
Bond returns will be negative real.
Real returns on both corporate and government bonds will be zero or negative over the next several years, with likely price decreases, making bonds unattractive.
TLT AVOID
IEF AVOID
Real estate prices likely to fall.
Real estate and land prices are likely to decrease, with low expected returns due to overinvestment, leading to a decline in transactions and values.
VNQ AVOID
Diesel and jet fuel will surge.
The war in the Persian Gulf and global underinvestment in fossil fuels will cause diesel and jet fuel prices to rise significantly, with potential shortages, adversely affecting transportation and farming.
UCO LONG
CRAK LONG
Agricultural commodities will rise sharply.
Fertilizer shortages and high diesel prices will diminish crop production globally, leading to significantly higher agricultural and food prices.
DBA LONG
Gold and silver are bottoming out.
The precious metals selloff after the hawkish Fed chair nomination and Iran attack was politically driven; the market is now bottoming out, implying a recovery in gold and silver.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
HIGH
22:27
Aug 04
Aug 04
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin's worst is over; buy now.
O hack da Coldcard, somado a outras notícias negativas e ao baixo sentimento do mercado, sinaliza que o pior já passou para o Bitcoin. O evento pode ser um marcador de fundo do ciclo, à semelhança do colapso da FTX, embora o volume roubado seja menor. Com os bitcoins abatidos e longe da euforia, é um momento propício para comprar, pois não estamos mais na fase de euforia e os preços se seguraram apesar das más notícias.
BTC LONG
HIGH
22:17
Aug 04
Aug 04
SKYY
Off-grid data center power generation
▾
MED
Hyperscaler capex strong, risks to upside
Hyperscaler AI capex will remain elevated this year and next, with risks skewed to the upside. Federal policy remains supportive despite local opposition, because the US-China AI race creates strong national security incentives to keep facilitating the buildout. The 'conditional buildout' means companies will offer local concessions but overall spending continues, benefiting the hyperscalers driving data center investment.
SKYY LONG
Off-grid power for data centers growing
As local moratoria and political pushback focus on electricity costs, data centers will increasingly need to go off-grid to avoid consumer backlash. This structural shift creates a growing opportunity in off-grid power solutions for data centers, driven by the power bottleneck and community resistance.
Off-grid data center power generation WATCH
MED
22:08
Aug 04
Aug 04
LITE
AMD
PLTR
SPY FLIP
KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Chinese optics ban benefits Lumentum, Marvell.
The U.S. preparing to ban Chinese optical transceivers is a direct catalyst for U.S. optical communication stocks like Lumentum and Marvell, which already rallied on the news and offer continued momentum.
LITE LONG
MRVL LONG
AMD leads semis with CPU, GPU strength.
AMD is the leading semiconductor stock with both GPU and CPU exposure. The CPU cycle is set to be the main character this earnings season, and AMD's strong resilience during the July sell-off confirms its leadership. Despite after-hours disappointment, AMD remains critically important and can recover once management addresses capex and guidance concerns.
AMD LONG
Palantir commercial revenue boom drives rally.
Palantir's commercial revenue surged 150%, validating that AI model diversification and open-weight trends increase demand for Palantir's decision-optimization platform. The company is well-positioned as an AI winner, and even Michael Burry closed his Palantir puts, signaling near-term upside.
PLTR LONG
S&P 500 all-time high, bull intact.
S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, confirming that the July sell-off was a reset, not the end of the bull market. Excessive leverage has been cleaned out, and momentum indicators suggest room for further upside, with Societe Generale targeting 8000.
SPY LONG
Memory chips are a post-selloff buy opportunity.
Memory semiconductors, especially SK hynix and Micron, became a buying opportunity after the July decline. Wall Street issued a wave of target price upgrades, citing AI demand tailwinds and attractive valuations.
KS LONG
MU LONG
Caterpillar benefits from AI data center power.
Caterpillar delivered strong earnings and highlighted AI data center backup power as a new growth driver, while also having capacity for share buybacks, driving the stock sharply higher.
CAT LONG
Kratos earnings explode on drone demand.
Kratos Defense, a drone company, reported EPS up 91% year-over-year, reflecting the rising importance of drones in modern warfare, and the stock surged on the results.
KTOS LONG
Alteogen gains on Keytruda sales growth.
Alteogen benefits from Merck's Keytruda sales growth (up 5% YoY) and Merck's continued focus on obesity drug development, creating a positive setup for the Korean biotech linked to Keytruda technology.
KQ LONG
Arista Networks rebound on cheap valuation.
Arista Networks delivered good earnings and had been unfairly undervalued, leading to a sharp after-hours rebound. The stock's cheap valuation relative to peers creates a buying opportunity.
ANET LONG
HIGH
21:59
Aug 04
Aug 04
21:01
Aug 04
Aug 04
TSLA
▾
MED
Tesla energy storage set for huge demand
A merger of Tesla and SpaceX would create huge synergies across chips, memory, compute, and especially energy, making the combined entity nearly irresistible to Elon Musk and possibly the largest firm in the world overnight, though regulatory hurdles and a potential forced divestiture of Tesla's Shanghai factory are major risks.
TSLA LONG
MED
21:00
Aug 04
Aug 04
20:49
Aug 04
Aug 04
SPCX FLIP
▾
HIGH
SpaceX is a compelling long-term investment. Starship is approaching reusability and massive scale, the company is building orbital data centers (Star Mine) with Nvidia GPUs that will expand Starlink's capabilities beyond connectivity, Starlink itself has huge untapped consumer backup and global internet markets and a nascent but critical military drone guidance application with no competitor, xAI's compute investment will pay off because demand far exceeds supply, and the stock currently trades below its IPO price, offering individual investors an attractive discount.
SPCX LONG
HIGH
20:48
Aug 04
Aug 04
SPCX
▾
HIGH
Accelerating growth and margin improvement ahead.
The company is likely to deliver accelerating top-line growth over the next three to four quarters, driven by a $47.5 billion backlog including large deals like Anthropic paying $1.25 billion/month and Google over $2 billion, plus improving margins. That growth-and-margin-improvement story is what investors favor, even though the valuation remains elevated.
SPCX LONG
HIGH
20:45
Aug 04
Aug 04
MUB 1ST
XLRE 1ST
PAVE 1ST
W
▾
HIGH
Muni bonds offer attractive yields now.
With higher interest rates offering attractive tax-equivalent yields, moving away from cash into municipal bonds provides an incremental 275-300 basis points of yield for clients in high-tax states like California, Illinois, and the Tri-State area.
MUB LONG
Overweight infrastructure, underweight real estate.
Commercial real estate faces headwinds from higher rates and potential Treasury market disruptions, making an underweight in real estate and an overweight in infrastructure the appropriate allocation.
XLRE AVOID
PAVE LONG
Wayfair's initiatives drive market share gains.
Wayfair achieved 9% US revenue growth, the highest post-Covid, driven by self-help initiatives including the Wayfair rewards program, new brick-and-mortar stores, and luxury brand Perigold, gaining market share in a flat home furnishings category with confidence in reaching 20% growth.
W LONG
HIGH
20:37
Aug 04
Aug 04
Bitcoin ETFs
▾
MED
Bitcoin ETF case strengthened after hack.
The cold storage Bitcoin heist shakes faith in self-custody and makes a stronger argument for gaining Bitcoin exposure through ETFs rather than holding physical Bitcoin in cold wallets.
Bitcoin ETFs LONG
MED
20:21
Aug 04
Aug 04
SPCX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Lockup share flood to pressure SpaceX.
The impending lockup expiry will add up to 911 million shares to SpaceX's float, and with short interest already over 200 million shares, this flood of new supply is likely to exert downward pressure on the stock regardless of earnings results.
SPCX AVOID
HIGH
20:20
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
5h
SPY
XLK
▾
HIGH
Earnings momentum drives S&P higher
The equity market is going higher, with S&P 500 year-end forecast of 8250. Fabulous earnings momentum continues, the economy is resilient, forward earnings are at an all-time record high and expected to exceed $400 a share by year-end, supporting a multiple expansion and an S&P above 8000.
SPY LONG
IT sector cheap, growth buying opportunity
Information technology sector is on sale, trading at the same multiple as the overall market, which is unusual for growth stocks. The sector looks nothing like the 1999-2000 tech bubble, earnings are strong, and the recent pullback created an attractive entry point for market weighting the sector.
XLK LONG
HIGH
20:00
Aug 04
Aug 04
Wealthion
5h
Short-term U.S. Treasuries
GLD
WTI 1ST
XLE
Value stocks
▾
HIGH
Hide in short-term Treasuries.
In an environment of potential rate hikes, market stress, and an unwinding AI bubble, hiding out in short-term U.S. Treasury securities is a prudent strategy. Warren Buffett holds $400 billion in short-term Treasuries, and following his lead is probably not a terrible idea to earn yield while protecting capital.
Short-term U.S. Treasuries LONG
Gold will rally after consolidation.
Gold got ahead of itself earlier this year but has now corrected back close to fair value relative to real interest rates. He has added back to his position because real rates will eventually fall when the Fed makes a dovish pivot. The gold bull market is in a consolidation phase that typically precedes another strong move higher.
GLD LONG
Oil and energy sector are undervalued.
The oil price is near an all-time low relative to the broader commodity complex and relative to gold and silver. Fundamental factors, geopolitical shifts, deglobalization, and inflationary dynamics all support higher oil prices. Oil is poised to move steadily higher toward an intrinsic value of over $100 per barrel, making the energy sector the most attractive in the stock market.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Rotate into value stocks.
The momentum factor has suffered a historic break after an unprecedented surge, similar to the end of the dot-com bubble. This is driving a rotation into value stocks, which historically serve as a safe haven during such shifts. Value is starting to do really well, and defensive sectors are leading.
Value stocks LONG
AI bubble is bursting.
The AI bubble is in its final blowoff and the beginning of the end. Speculative levered capital from Korean retail traders, crypto bros, and momentum hedge funds that drove AI hardware stocks is now impaired. Hyperscaler earnings quality has deteriorated dramatically with negative free cash flow, rising depreciation charges, and questionable mark-ups. The circular financing that supported the AI buildout may break when loss-making AI startups like Anthropic and OpenAI struggle to raise public capital.
AI and Semiconductor Equities AVOID
Watch 10-year yield breaking higher.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is the most important chart in the world as the risk-free rate underpinning all assets. A breakout to new highs would signal a bond market vote of no confidence in the Fed's inflation fight, creating significant problems for equities and the financing of the AI buildout. He is watching this yield closely as the key warning signal.
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield WATCH
HIGH
19:34
Aug 04
Aug 04
CRAK
Diesel crack spread
▾
HIGH
Diesel supply crunch keeps prices high.
A global diesel supply crunch exists because Persian Gulf refineries cannot export, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and lower Chinese refinery runs have tightened supply. Diesel prices have stayed high even during crude oil pullbacks and US-Iran truces, threatening to raise transportation costs further in the fall. This points to continued high diesel prices.
CRAK LONG
Refinery margins to stay high.
Refinery margins, not crude oil, have been the dominant driver of diesel price gains this time. With the diesel supply squeeze, those margins are likely to stay elevated even if oil prices come down, making long diesel crack spreads attractive.
Diesel crack spread LONG
HIGH
19:24
Aug 04
Aug 04
WTI 1ST
CRAK
UGA
▾
HIGH
Massive crude supply disruption, high upside potential.
12% of global crude oil supply is off the market, twice the scale of the 1970s oil shocks. Oil prices have risen only 100% so far, so if the conflict drags out, the upside potential is very large.
WTI LONG
Watch diesel, gasoline prices for market impact.
The big thing to watch in oil markets is not WTI or Brent crude, but the price of diesel and gasoline. Those refined products directly impact corporate earnings, the Fed's path, and overall consumers.
CRAK WATCH
UGA WATCH
HIGH
19:18
Aug 04
Aug 04
AMD 1ST
▾
MED
AMD benefits from AI data center CPUs
AMD, though a distant second in AI GPUs, has a technology advantage in servers for inference workloads, and data center buildouts require a proportionate number of CPUs, where AMD has a strong product. This CPU tailwind is a point of differentiation from Nvidia, even as Nvidia begins to offer CPUs.
AMD LONG
MED
18:59
Aug 04
Aug 04
BTC
SOL
HYPE 1ST
V 1ST
▾
HIGH
Institutions drive Bitcoin, Solana, Hyperliquid higher.
Wintermute's OTC data shows institutional flows surging to 72% of total, with institutions focusing their investable universe on a narrow set of major tokens like Bitcoin, Solana, and Hyperliquid. Their selective buying is driving price action in these tokens, causing decoupling from the broader market and creating resilient demand. Institutional adoption trend remains strong and is expanding.
BTC LONG
SOL LONG
HYPE LONG
Visa wins from stablecoin card boom.
Visa's stablecoin card business is seeing triple-digit year-over-year growth, with stablecoin volumes hitting record $1.79 trillion in June. New stablecoin card programs launch almost weekly. Visa's global merchant acceptance network of 200 million provides unmatched distribution, making Visa a key beneficiary of stablecoin adoption.
V LONG
HIGH
18:58
Aug 04
Aug 04
SMH
LRCX 1ST
MU 1ST
MTUM 1ST
Value and Momentum Factor Strategy
▾
HIGH
Semiconductor earnings growth remains exceptional and underestimated.
Extraordinary earnings growth in the semiconductor space will continue, driven by AI capex and hyperscaler spending, making the sector bullish. Analyst estimates for Lam Research are too low; if Lam Research's earnings exceed expectations, memory prices will remain high, leaving Micron trading at only 8x earnings and undervalued.
SMH LONG
LRCX LONG
MU LONG
Momentum anomaly persists; limited capital chasing it.
Momentum investing has been persistently profitable because it is driven by extrapolators (return chasers) whose behavior creates trends, and the capital allocated to pure momentum strategies remains limited relative to the size of the market. This prevents momentum from being arbitraged away, making it a robust anomaly.
MTUM LONG
Value plus momentum is the most robust strategy.
The combination of long-term value and momentum is the most robust investment approach across markets. Historical evidence and their model show that putting value (focus on long-term cash flows) together with momentum (as a risk signal or allocation overlay) yields the best risk-adjusted returns.
Value and Momentum Factor Strategy LONG
US equities offer only 1% risk premium.
US equity valuations are extremely high, with a long-term expected return of only ~6% and a risk premium of just 1% over safe assets. Buybacks, static asset allocators, and extrapolators have inflated prices, but the low expected return makes US equities unattractive. Elm Wealth is notably underweight US equities.
S AVOID
Non-US equities offer better long-term returns.
Non-US equities offer healthier long-term returns relative to safe assets than US equities. Valuation-based earnings yields are higher, momentum is positive, and the risk environment is low. Elm Wealth is quite overweight non-US equities.
VXUS LONG
Long bonds show negative momentum; avoid now.
TIPS and nominal long-term bonds are currently in a negative momentum state, signaling elevated risk. Elm Wealth is underweight these bonds and instead overweight treasury bills, waiting for interest rates and bond prices to stabilize before potentially re-entering.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
18:05
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
7h
DOCN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Profitable AI infrastructure with strong growth.
DigitalOcean has pivoted squarely into AI infrastructure, delivering record growth with 29% YoY revenue increase, 800% AI inference revenue growth, and a $200M+ AI run rate. The company projects 50% revenue growth next year while remaining disciplined: positive free cash flow, 24% adjusted operating margins, and targeting high-growth AI-native startups, making it a profitable and differentiated AI play.
DOCN LONG
HIGH
17:44
Aug 04
Aug 04
MRK 1ST
PFE 1ST
RSP 1ST
PLTR
SPCX 1ST
▾
MED
Merck pipeline stronger than Pfizer.
Merck has a stronger drug pipeline and has convinced investors it can manage the upcoming patent expirations better than Pfizer, which relies mainly on cost cutting and recently lost its CFO to Nike. This positions Merck favorably relative to Pfizer.
MRK LONG
PFE AVOID
Earnings broadening favors equal-weight S&P.
Earnings growth is accelerating outside the megacap AI names, with non-AI companies growing earnings 17% year over year. The equal-weight S&P 500 is hitting all-time highs, reflecting a broad-based rally as AI trickles down into industrials and other sectors.
RSP LONG
Palantir overvalued, growth will normalize.
Palantir trades at extremely rich multiples and carries the risk that its revenue growth will eventually normalize. The company has a concentrated customer base and faces the threat that clients eventually question why they should pay a premium when open-source LLMs exist. The current strong numbers may not be sustainable.
PLTR AVOID
SpaceX too early, lockup risk.
SpaceX is the frothiest trade the market has ever seen. The company has no earnings, faces massive capital needs to fund its dreams, and short sellers have already made $8 billion. The bet is that SpaceX will run out of money before its dreams come true, and with shorts in profit, they are likely to hold their positions.
SPCX AVOID
Small-cap value benefits from AI broadening.
The AI theme is broadening beyond large caps into smaller companies that are helping out in the AI buildout, such as network connectivity and data centers. This is driving a small-cap value rally that likely has more room to run.
IWM LONG
MED
17:23
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
8h
PLTR
CVX 1ST
XOM 1ST
JPY 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Buy Palantir for ethical enterprise AI.
AI models have distilled value from enterprise intellectual property. The ethical and best way to deploy AI is through an application layer on your own compute where you control the model. Palantir provides that layer, and buying and installing Palantir is the best way to achieve enterprise AI success. The company just beat estimates, commercial revenue more than doubled, US government revenue grew 90%, and full-year guidance was raised.
PLTR LONG
Oil majors' profits fair; buybacks reward shareholders.
Chevron and Exxon are making reasonable profit margins (Exxon ~8.8%) and have been operating refineries at 96-98% capacity to keep fuel prices from spiking higher during the Middle East war. Capitalism rewards shareholders who risk capital, and these companies return cash through buybacks and dividends. Political attacks on their profits ignore how vital they are to energy stability, and any pushback that causes them to slow production would harm consumers.
CVX LONG
XOM LONG
Long yen on coordinated intervention, policy path.
The US and Japan conducted a coordinated intervention to support the Japanese yen, which is substantially undervalued. Japan is expected to implement policies to normalize the currency, and the US is highly optimistic about that policy path. The intervention signals to speculators that leaning on the carry trade will result in losses, and the yen should strengthen back to a normal equilibrium price, stabilizing the region.
JPY LONG
Short oil; Iran deal opens Strait.
A deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be announced today or tomorrow, after Iran's air force, navy, and missile production capability were largely destroyed. The reopening will free hundreds of ships waiting to transit, leading to a big relief trade that will settle energy prices, fertilizer, and industrial gases significantly lower.
WTI SHORT
Long Snap; free cash flow, specs future.
Snap delivered a strong quarter with accelerating advertising conversions (+56% YoY), free cash flow inflecting to offset dilution and strengthen the balance sheet, and direct subscription revenue growing 85% to over $300 million. The company expects to convert 7-12% of its 970 million users to paying subscribers over time. Its Specs augmented-reality glasses represent a new computing platform with first-mover advantage and an ecosystem of hundreds of thousands of AR developers, positioning Snap for sustainable long-term growth.
SNAP LONG
HIGH
17:15
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
8h
INCY 1ST
BIIB 1ST
XBI
LLY 1ST
VRTX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Earnings beat with expanding drug pipeline.
Incyte reported Q4 revenue of $1.67B and adjusted earnings of $3.09, crushing the $2.12 estimate, and raised full-year net sales guidance. The company, once seen as a one-drug name, now has a pipeline of 9–10 drugs in various stages of trials, all of which could be major winners. Technically, traders can watch the $109 area (50-day) as an alert, investors can use the 200-day near $101, with the uptrend over above $100.
INCY LONG
Earnings beat, breakout above $218 possible.
Biogen beat top- and bottom-line expectations with earnings coming in 18% above consensus and forward guidance raised. The stock has knocked on $218 multiple times; a clean close above that level would confirm a breakout. Traders can use $190 as support, investors can anchor to the 200-day at $183.
BIIB LONG
Rotation into biotech under accumulation.
Money is rotating into biotech names that are working away from AI/capex and hyperscalers. These stocks are under accumulation again, putting up big numbers and bringing in new shareholders.
XBI LONG
Cheap valuation, dominant obesity franchise growth.
Eli Lilly has cheapened from its peak (P/E down from 50x to low 30s), is expected to deliver >30% revenue growth and 50% growth in its dominant obesity platform, and upcoming drug approvals could catalyze further upside.
LLY LONG
New purchase as healthcare allocation increases.
Vertex was just purchased as the healthcare weighting was increased to 11.7%, reflecting a conviction that healthcare exposure should continue to rise.
VRTX LONG
GLP-1 entry, pipeline, cheap, 3% yield.
Amgen has dominant franchises, is entering the GLP-1 space which offers upside, boasts one of the best pipelines in the business, is not expensive, and pays a 3% dividend yield.
AMGN LONG
Cheap, ignored, strong oncology and HIV.
Gilead is an ignored company, up only 8% year-to-date, trades at 16x earnings, has one of the best oncology franchises, and Biktarvy is the dominant HIV treatment.
GILD LONG
Cheap, dividend, pipeline complements oncology.
Bristol-Myers Squibb is exceptionally cheap, has a good dividend yield, and possesses a pipeline that complements AstraZeneca’s oncology focus, particularly in cardiovascular, despite the negative market reaction to the rumored deal.
BMY LONG
HIGH
16:58
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
8h
SPY 1ST
▾
MED
Strait deal likely unsustainable, avoid relief rally.
Even if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is announced, it is unlikely to be a sustainable, enforceable agreement. The geopolitical team is skeptical, and the conflict will remain in a muddle because China has shown no willingness to pressure Iran for a real deal, and the US has shown no inclination for significant escalation beyond air strikes. Therefore, the market's relief rally based on peace hopes is overdone and should not be trusted.
SPY AVOID
MED
16:43
Aug 04
Aug 04
FXY 1ST
▾
MED
Intervention-driven yen strength is likely unsustainable.
The recent intervention-driven yen strength is a temporary bridge, not a permanent solution, as Japanese retail investors continue to export capital abroad and central bank intervention cannot indefinitely offset structural capital outflows. Without organic catalysts like a Bank of Japan rate hike or lower oil prices, the yen is likely to resume weakening once intervention support wanes.
FXY SHORT
MED
16:39
Aug 04
Aug 04
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Yen will break 155, target low 150s.
Japanese authorities are determined to break the 155 level in USD/JPY through coordinated intervention with the US, utilizing a Fed repo facility that removes reserve constraints. The cost of failure is high, so they will do whatever it takes. Additionally, Japan’s balance of payments has improved, and equity-related hedging flows that had pressured the yen could reverse. Yamada’s year-end target is low 150s, implying sustained yen appreciation.
USD/JPY SHORT
HIGH
16:38
Aug 04
Aug 04
TOPIX
▾
HIGH
Japanese stocks face tactical correction risk.
Japanese equities face a risk of a tactical correction, as speculative short yen positions are at record levels similar to the setup preceding the 2024 carry trade unwind, making the market vulnerable to a pullback after currency intervention. Valuations are also higher than in 2024, increasing equity market vulnerability, though the yen is expected to appreciate less due to growth and interest rate differentials.
TOPIX WATCH
HIGH
16:36
Aug 04
Aug 04
US High Yield Bonds
US Investment Grade Bonds
EUR 1ST
AUD 1ST
CAD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Spread products will suffer from carry trade deterioration.
If authorities inject volatility to limit carry trades, spread products—the main beneficiaries of carry trades—will suffer at the margin, particularly US high yield and investment grade bonds.
US High Yield Bonds AVOID
US Investment Grade Bonds AVOID
Diversification benefits non-USD major currencies.
Although dollar dominance will endure for decades, a marginal deterioration is underway as authorities diversify away from the dollar, benefiting currencies like the euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar and Korean won.
EUR LONG
AUD LONG
CAD LONG
KRW LONG
SGD LONG
Oil is a durable Middle East hedge.
Oil prices remain a key hedge for Middle East geopolitical tensions and will stay an edge for a long time.
WTI LONG
Yen may regain safe haven status.
Growing pressure on the Bank of Japan to change tack at current valuations, along with trade tensions, could allow the yen to regain its safe-haven shine.
JPY LONG
Gold benefits from diversification and peak real rates.
Gold is increasingly attractive again, benefiting structurally from diversification away from the dollar and from an expected peak in US real rates, which will be quite positive for gold prices.
GLD LONG
HIGH
15:36
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
9h
AMZN FLIP
MSFT
GOOGL
SMH
▾
HIGH
Cloud and semiconductors benefit as models commoditize
As open source models proliferate and reduce token costs by 90%, workloads will be routed to the most appropriate model for each task, commoditizing the proprietary AI model layer. Value will accrue to infrastructure players, specifically cloud platforms like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, and semiconductors. Recent earnings from AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud show accelerating revenue growth and expanding margins, supporting this view. Niles is fully positioned in these infrastructure names.
AMZN LONG
MSFT LONG
GOOGL LONG
SMH LONG
HIGH
15:36
Aug 04
Aug 04
CNBC
9h
WFC
▾
HIGH
Revenue and return growth will lift stock.
Wells Fargo is deliberately growing revenues and returns, even if it pressures net interest margin in the short term. The company delivered EPS up 25%, controlled expenses, grew loans, deposits, bankers, and traders, and took market share in investment banking and markets (banking revenues up 20%, markets up 24%). Scharf expects earnings growth and PE multiple expansion to drive the stock price higher over time, and the market will reward that performance.
WFC LONG
HIGH
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